Play 3NT
As Dealer, with neither vulnerable at IMP’s, you pick up the following:
A Q 5 
A K 6 
A 7 6 5 4 
5 3.
For Goren point counters, this may seem like a routine 1NT opener. For devotees of the Kaplan-Reuben count this is a 17.9 hand, so it is a bit heavy. The problem is that partner, with club length, may respond 1NT and leave you exposed to a spade lead. Alternatively, if partner responds in a major, you have to rebid 2NT with two small in clubs. I realize that most might not even worry about this, but not vulnerable, you choose to bid a heavy 1NT. You are relieved to hear partner invite (via a non-major showing stayman auction) and you land in 3NT.
The Q is led, and partner tables the follwing:
8 4
7 4
K T 8 2
A J T 9 6.
How do you play it?
Ok, you have six top tricks, so you need 3 more. Diamonds will provide 3 more if they split 2-2, or if RHO has stiff J or Q and you play restricted choice. Total probability is about 7/16, or 44%. Or, clubs will provide 3 more if LHO has Kx, Qx, KQ, Kxx, Qxx, or KQx. The probability of these splits is about 25/64, or 39%. Now, can you combine these chances? Well, if you play A - K of diamonds first, you have to get back to your hand with a major suit entry to finesse clubs - not great. So you could play K - A of diamonds, but that lowers the suit probability to 6/16. Also, then when you lead a club to the J, LHO can foil your plans by rising with his honor from Hx(x).
Thus, what if you start with clubs first? That sounds promising - you can lead a club to the J. Assume it loses, or you can revert to diamonds for 4 tricks. When they come back with the heart, you can play A - K of diamonds; then if they don’t split you can revert back to the club suit, reentering your hand with the spade ace for the second club hook. Total probability by combining your minor suit chances is about 66%.
November 16, 2006 Mark Kinzer
Duck the first heart, win any continuation-discern LHO’s heart length if possible, lead clubs and finessing twice. The idea being establihing 4 club tricks on a good lie of the cards before touching diamonds. If not a good lie then, you may still take 2 or 3 club tricks and a 2-2 diamonds break or a restricted choice against LHO sees you home. If these fail, you may still make the hand if LHO has 4 or 5 hearts and RHO has the K of spades.
To beat you they need a combination of things:
1 LHO has KQxxx of clubs
2. One of the opponents has QJx or better in diamonds or RHO has Qxx (unlikely)
3 LHO has the K of spades
4 Hearts are 4-4
While you may add features in choosing an opening bid, you may discount features too–like the ratty diamonds suit and the doubleton club. These alone negate all the other positives and point to a simple strong 1NT opening. You are struggling in 3NT with this average to goodish dummy! Look what would have happened it the Q of spades was the Q of diamonds:
Axx AKx AQxxx xx
No worry!
November 26, 2006 Slammer
I must say I’m confused by the rationale to open 1NT rather than 1D because of the low doubleton club in what you consider to be an otherwise borderline hand. I would much rather open 1D and jump-rebid 2NT over 1-major, for a few reasons:
(1) If you open 1D, they can’t double Stayman;
(2) If you open 1D with this control-rich hand, you might actually get to a good 5D on balanced-opposite-balanced-or-semi-balanced and no club stop. This seems rather less likely to happen if you open 1NT;
(3) I don’t like playing my slams in 3NT. This is a slam-oriented hand and a strong NT opening is a slam-killer, especially when the NT opener has so many controls.
(4) If I am worried about which hand is on lead to lead a club, I can’t right-side NT (except 1D-nNT, but if responder can bid that way, clubs probably aren’t a concern). However, opening 1D is more likely to right-side 4S.
November 29, 2006 Christopher Monsour
In my above comments, I realize I didn’t address the concern about a spade lead if partner declared notrump. I tend to discount this risk somewhat for a couple of reasons: (a) if partner responds 1NT, then we are stopping short of game almost half the time, and not as many IMPs are at stake in those situations; (b) I assume 1D-2NT is game forcing, so that partner isn’t responding 2NT unless you have 29+ combined points and it probably doesn’t matter who is on lead. If 1D-2NT is invitational, this may be a closer decision. Also, if you reverse the minors, this is a closer decision: There is no longer a concern about a double od Stayman on a 1NT opening, and it is tougher to get to club contracts after 1C-1maj-2NT than it is to get to diamond contracts after 1D-1maj-2NT, partly because of how most methods over the 2NT rebid work and partly because the second sequence guarantees four diamonds but the other sequence does not guarantee four clubs.
December 2, 2006 Christopher Monsour